History has proven time and time again that upsets happen every week in the NFL. With that being the case, we are fairly certain that there will be at least one or two shocking upsets during Week 5 of the 2018 NFL season.
There may not be an upset on the level of the Buffalo Bills’ stunning straight-up win over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3, but there is sure to be several teams that find themselves on upset alert come Sunday afternoon.
That said, here is a look at three potential upsets — against the spread (ATS) — in Week 5.
Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.ag as of September 5, 2018.
Jacksonville Jaguars over Kansas City Chiefs
Point Spread: Chiefs -3
The Chiefs are owners of a perfect 4-0 record, while the Jaguars will enter the game at 3-1. In our eyes, this matchup is the game of the week in Week 5 and could ultimately be a preview of the AFC Championship.
The outcome of this game will likely come down to the performance of MVP front-runner Patrick Mahomes against the Jacksonville defense, which is widely considered to be the best and most complete defensive group in the league.
Mahomes has been outstanding in 2018, but he was far from unstoppable against the Denver Broncos in Week 4. And let’s face it, the Broncos, with all due respect to Von Miller and Chris Harris Jr., aren’t on the same level as the Jaguars defensively.
Look for this game to come down to the final possession and be a lower-scoring affair than expected, with the Jags pulling off a road ATS upset.
Cleveland Browns over Baltimore Ravens
Point Spread: Ravens -3.5
Bottom line: The Browns are no longer the doormat team of the NFL. After years of landing high draft picks, they have finally put together a roster that is fully capable of winning games on a consistent basis.
In Week 5, the Browns (1-2-1) are home underdogs to the Ravens (3-1). While the Ravens have unquestionably been impressive in 2018, we like the Browns to keep this one close at home. All said, Baltimore may win, but we don’t see them doing so by more than a field goal.
Dallas Cowboys over Houston Texans
Point Spread: Texans -4.5
The Texans have been arguably the most disappointing team in the NFL in 2018. They got a huge win against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4, but we aren’t completely convinced they have fixed their issues.
The Cowboys defense has been surprisingly good in 2018, and their offense is capable of thoroughly controlling clock. With that being the case, we expect this game to be decided by a field goal or less.
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